Integrated Balance Sheet · ICAAP · ILAAP · Scenario Analysis
FY 2025 · €bn · Results Released: 4 March 2026
Base Case
Scenario:
Rate Shock (bps):
+0 bps
Credit Stress (NPE Δ):
+0 bps
Deposit Outflow:
0%
Executive Overview
AIB Group · Consolidated · FY 2025 · Released 4 March 2026
Base Case
Total Assets
€148.2bn
FY24: €128.4bn ↑+15.5%
Net Loans
€70.7bn
+€1.5bn reported YoY (underlying +€2.4bn excl. FX) (underlying +€2.4bn)
Customer Deposits
€117.2bn
+€7.4bn YoY
CET1 Ratio
16.2%
Req. ~11.0% · Headroom +520bps
LCR
204%
Min 100% · Buffer: €22.8bn HQLA
ROTE
25.0%
Target >20% 2026F ✓ — exceeded
Balance Sheet Composition — Assets vs Liabilities (€bn)
Assets €148.2bn
48%
12%
32%
3%
5%
Loans
Sec.
Cash
Deriv.
Other
Liabilities & Equity €148.2bn
81%
6%
3%
3%
10%
Deposits
Wholesale
Sub Debt
Deriv.
Equity
Loan-to-Deposit Ratio61.0%
NIM2.73%
Cost of Risk24bps
NPE Ratio2.2%
Capital & Liquidity RAG
Capital (ICAAP)
CET1 16.2%Min 11.36%
T1 Ratio 17.6%Min 12.86%
Total Capital 20.1%Min 14.86%
Leverage Ratio 7.4%Min 3.0%
Liquidity (ILAAP)
LCR 204%Min 100% (scale: 250%)
NSFR 163%Min 100%
Survival Horizon11+ months
ROTE Forecast (%) — Base vs Stress vs Upside
■ Base ■ Stress ■ Upside
Key Alerts
✓ Capital Position
CET1 520bps above MDA trigger. Stress buffer comfortable even in severe scenario (CET1 ~13.2%).
⚠ Rate Sensitivity
NII sensitive to ECB rate path. -100bps shock = -€378M NII (pro-forma -€286M post additional €10bn hedge). Q4 2025 exit NIM 2.69%. 2026 NII guidance ~€3.8bn.
✓ Liquidity Headroom
HQLA €22.8bn. LCR 204% — well above minimum. Deposit franchise very strong, LDR 61%. NSFR 163%.
⚠ NPE Trajectory
NPE reduced 20% to €1.6bn / 2.2% (Dec24: 2.8%). CRE and SME remain watch areas. Cost of risk 24bps (exact: €172m charge), guidance 20-30bps for 2026.
NII
€3.75bn
-9% YoY — rate headwinds; guided c.€3.8bn in 2026
PAT
€2.14bn
Returned to full private ownership · 105% payout
Cost / Income
44.2%
FY24: 43.8% · target: <€2.0bn costs ✓
EPS
€0.933
+0.8c YoY (93.3c vs 92.5c)
DPS (total)
€0.586
+€1bn buyback commenced 4 Mar 2026 · 105% payout ratio
TNAV / Share
€4.62
+€0.58 YoY
Balance Sheet
FY 2025 · IFRS · Consolidated · €bn
Assets
Line ItemFY25 BaseScenarioFY24
Cash & Central Bank Balances
Cash & demand deposits3.83.83.8
Central bank & short-term placements44.744.741.4
Total Cash & CB48.548.545.2
Financial Assets
Loans to banks (amort. cost)3.03.03.2
Loans to customers (net)71.271.269.9
Investment securities — FVOCI17.617.615.4
Investment securities — FVTPL2.52.52.5
Investment securities — Amort. Cost1.41.40.8
Derivative financial instruments5.05.08.6
Other Assets
Goodwill & intangibles0.80.80.8
Property, plant & equipment1.11.11.2
Deferred tax assets0.90.91.1
Other assets7.07.07.5
Total Assets148.2148.2128.4
Liabilities & Equity
Line ItemFY25 BaseScenarioFY24
Deposits
Deposits by banks0.20.20.8
Customer deposits — current/demand62.462.458.6
Customer deposits — term/notice54.854.851.2
Total Deposits120.0120.0112.6
Wholesale & Market Funding
Covered bonds issued3.83.83.6
Senior unsecured / SNP green bonds3.83.84.2
TLTRO / Central bank funding0.00.00.0
Other wholesale / repo0.60.61.0
Capital Instruments
Tier 2 subordinated debt (incl. €1bn green T2)2.62.61.7
AT1 instruments (incl. €700m new AT1)1.61.60.9
Other Liabilities
Derivative financial instruments4.54.58.0
Other liabilities & provisions7.57.56.4
Equity
Share capital & premium2.82.83.4
Retained earnings & reserves11.411.48.2
FVOCI reserve (OCI)0.50.5-0.6
Total Liabilities & Equity148.2148.2128.4
Loan Book Composition (Gross €72.3bn / Net ~€70.7bn)
Segment€bn%NPE%CoverageStage
Mortgages (RoI)27.239.6%1.4%28%S1 93%
Mortgages (UK)9.414.4%1.2%24%S1 95%
SME9.214.1%3.8%58%S2 12%
Commercial Real Estate7.611.7%3.1%52%S2 14%
Corporate6.810.4%2.1%45%S1 88%
Consumer / Personal4.26.5%2.6%62%S1 91%
Project Finance2.23.4%0.8%30%S1 96%
Net Loans70.7100%2.2%42%
Funding Structure
Funding Source€bn%CostMaturity
Current / Demand Deposits62.442.1%0.18%O/N
Term / Notice Deposits54.837.0%1.84%<1yr
Bank Deposits2.81.9%3.60%Short
Covered Bonds3.42.3%3.20%4.2yr
Senior Unsecured / SNP3.82.6%4.45%3.8yr
AT11.61.1%6.25%Perp.
Tier 22.61.8%5.30%8.2yr
Equity14.79.9%Perp.
Other liabilities6.05.1%
Total148.2100%1.42%
ICAAP — Internal Capital Adequacy Assessment
Pillar 1 · Pillar 2 · Stress Testing · Capital Planning
CET1 Ratio
16.2%
+520bps above MDA trigger
Headroom: €2.7bn
Tier 1 Capital Ratio
17.6%
+474bps above req. ~12.86%
Total Capital Ratio
20.1%
+515bps above req. ~14.86%
Leverage Ratio
7.4%
+440bps above min 3.0%
Capital Stack — Regulatory Requirements vs Actuals
SREP Capital Requirements — Pillar 2
Requirement ComponentRequirementSource
Pillar 1 — Minimum CET14.50%CRR
Capital Conservation Buffer (CCB)2.50%CRD
O-SII Buffer (Systemic)1.50%CBI
Pillar 2 Requirement (P2R) — CET11.75%SREP
Countercyclical Buffer (CCyB)0.75%CBI
Total CET1 Requirement (TSCR+CBR)11.36%
Pillar 2 Guidance (P2G)~1.5–2.0%ECB
MDA Trigger (TSCR+CBR+P2G)~12.8–13.4%
AIB CET1 Actual16.2%Actual
CET1 Headroom above MDA~300–360bps
RWA Composition (Total €102.4bn)
Credit Risk RWA€79.1bn (77%)
Market Risk RWA€4.4bn (4.3%)
Operational Risk RWA€13.2bn (12.9%)
CVA / Other RWA€5.7bn (5.8%)

RWA Density (RWA/TA)37.4%
CET1 Capital (€bn)€9.0bn
ICAAP Stress — CET1 Walk (Base → Severe)
DriverBaseAdverseSevere
CET1 Start16.2%16.2%16.2%
Credit Impairment Impact-0.3%-1.2%-2.4%
NII / Revenue Impact+0.4%-0.6%-1.1%
RWA Inflation (procyclical)-0.2%-0.8%-1.4%
Market Risk / FVOCI0.0%-0.3%-0.8%
Operational Risk0.0%-0.1%-0.5%
CET1 End (3-yr stress)16.3%14.4%11.4%
vs. Min Requirement+494bps+304bps+40bps (v improved)
Capital Adequacy — Sensitivity
⚠ Severe Stress Breach
In the severe 3yr scenario CET1 falls to 10.2% — below the TSCR+CBR of 11.36%. Management buffer actions (dividend suspension, RWA reduction) would need to be triggered.
SensitivityCET1 Δ
+1% NPE ratio-42bps
+100bps ECB rate (NII+, OCI-)+18bps
-100bps ECB rate-42bps
+10% RWA inflation-149bps
-15% property values-38bps
€500M buyback-54bps
€1bn organic capital generation+107bps
ILAAP — Internal Liquidity Adequacy Assessment
LCR · NSFR · HQLA · Survival Horizon · Concentration
LCR (Liquidity Coverage)
204%
Min: 100% | Surplus: €14.2bn HQLA
NSFR (Net Stable Funding)
163%
Min: 100% | Surplus: €18.6bn ASF
HQLA (Total)
€22.8bn
L1: €19.2bn | L2A: €2.4bn | L2B: €1.2bn
Survival Horizon
11+ mths
Combined stress scenario (ECB)
HQLA Composition & LCR Bridge
HQLA Breakdown
Level 1 — Sovereign/CB bonds€19.2bn
Level 2A — Agency / Covered bonds€2.4bn
Level 2B — Corp bonds / Equities€1.2bn
LCR Bridge (30-Day Stress)
Total HQLA€22.8bn
Net Outflows (stressed 30d)-€11.2bn
LCR Numerator/Denominator204%
Outflow Assumptions (30d):
Retail deposit runoff (5%)-€5.9bn
Wholesale unsecured (25%)-€2.4bn
Committed facilities-€1.8bn
Collateral calls-€1.2bn
Inflows (capped 75%)+€0.7bn
Liquidity Stress Scenarios
ScenarioSurvivalLCR Impact
Idiosyncratic (bank-specific)11 mths-48pp
Market-wide stress10 mths-42pp
Combined (idio + market)9 mths-78pp
Severe deposit run (20%)6 mths-89pp
Deposit scenario (slider: 0%)9+ mths0pp

Concentration & Encumbrance
Asset Encumbrance Ratio18.4%
Top 20 Depositor Conc.14.2%
Wholesale Funding Reliance7.6%
FX Liquidity Buffer (non-EUR)£1.8bn GBP
NSFR — Available vs Required Stable Funding
ASF Category€bnASF FactorWeighted
Equity & Tier 2 (>1yr)14.2100%12.6
Stable retail deposits58.495%55.5
Less stable retail deposits58.890%52.9
Wholesale deposits >6m3.250%1.6
Covered bonds >1yr4.1100%4.1
Total ASF136.8
Total RSF (Required)83.9
NSFR163%
Funding Maturity Profile — Wholesale (€bn)
Maturing <1yr€4.8bn
Maturing 1–3yr€3.2bn
Maturing >3yr€5.8bn
Avg. Maturity (wholesale)3.6 years
P&L · NII · ROTE Forecast
Income Statement · Drivers · 3-Year Forecast
Net Interest Income
€3,748M
-9% YoY — lower ECB rates
Non-Interest Income
€756M
+4.2% YoY
Operating Expenses
€1,992M
CIR: 44.2%
Impairment Charge
€172M
CoR: 24bps
PAT
€2,139M
-9.0% YoY (2024: €2,351m)
Income Statement (€M)
Line ItemFY25ScenarioFY24FY23
Net Interest Income3,7483,7484,1292,526
Fee & Commission Income692692666372
Other non-fee income (incl. exceptional €156m)6464113222
Total Operating Income4,5044,5044,8893,120
Staff Costs-966-966-980-822
General & Admin / Other Opex-735-735-690-624
Operating Expenses-1,992-1,992-1,971-1,380
Op. Profit pre-Impairment2,3982,3982,7991,740
Impairment Charge (ECL)-172-172-55-128
Bank levies & regulatory fees-114-114-138-42
PBT2,3992,3992,7021,574
Tax-260-260-351-40
Profit After Tax2,1392,1392,3511,536
ROTE Forecast — 3 Year (Base · Stress · Upside)
FY2026F Base
20.2%
FY2027F Base
19.0%
FY2028F Base
17.0%
ROTE DriverFY25AFY26F BaseFY26F StressFY26F Upside
NII (€M)3,7483,8003,3804,050
Non-Interest (€M)748720660780
Opex (€M)-1,990-2,030-2,030-2,010
CIR (%)44.2%43.8%47.2%41.0%
Impairments (€M)-172-175-450-120
CoR (bps)24256016
PAT (€M)2,1392,0501,3802,520
Avg. TE (€bn)8.49.69.69.6
ROTE25.0%20.214.8%25.8%

NIM Sensitivity to Rate Moves
-200bps
2.14%
-100bps
2.44%
Base
2.73%
+100bps
3.01%
Scenario Analysis Engine
Dynamic impact modeling — adjust controls above
Scenario NII Impact
€0M
vs. base €3,748M
Scenario CET1 Impact
0bps
CET1: 16.2%
Scenario ROTE Impact
0pp
ROTE: 25.0%
Scenario LCR Impact
0pp
LCR: 204%
Scenario Comparison Matrix
MetricBaseAdverseSevereUpside
ECB Rate Assumption2.65%1.50%0.50%3.00%
GDP Growth (RoI)4.0%-1.0%-3.5%5.5%
Property Price Δ+3%-12%-28%+8%
Unemployment (peak)4.4%7.8%11.2%3.8%
NII (€M)3,7483,2002,6004,020
CoR (bps)246013012
Impairment Charge (€M)-172-395-858-82
PAT (€M)2,1391,3205802,680
ROTE (%)25.0%13.8%6.1%27.9%
CET1 (end, 3yr)16.2%14.8%11.6%18.2%
LCR204%162%122%228%
NPE Ratio2.2%4.8%7.8%1.6%
Interest Rate Shock — NII & EVE Impact
Rate ShockNII Δ (€M)NII Δ (%)EVE Δ (€M)CET1 Δ
-200bps parallel-€756M-20.2%+€380M+29bps
-100bps parallel-€378M-10.1%+€190M+14bps
+100bps parallel+€312M+8.3%-€220M-17bps
+200bps parallel+€580M+15.5%-€460M-35bps
+300bps parallel+€780M+20.8%-€720M-55bps
Steepener (+200 long)+€180M+6.3%-€240M-18bps
Flattener (-100 short)-€92M-3.2%+€90M+7bps
Current Slider€0M0.0%€0M0bps

Credit Stress — Impairment Sensitivity
SegmentCoR BaseΔ per +100bpsCurrent Stress
Mortgages7bps+€52M€0M
SME42bps+€39M€0M
CRE35bps+€30M€0M
Corporate18bps+€29M€0M
Total Additional Impairments€0M
Risk Dashboard
CRO View · Credit · Market · Operational · Concentration
NPE Ratio
2.2%
Dec24: 2.8% ↓ NPEs -20% to €1.6bn
NPE Coverage
42%
ECB avg: 43%
Cost of Risk
24bps
2026 guidance: 20-30bps (within range)
Forborne Exposure
1.4%
of total loan book
Credit Quality — Stage Migration (€bn)
IFRS9 StageFY25FY24ECL RateProvision €M
Stage 1 (12M ECL)€61.8bn€58.8bn0.09%€56M
Stage 2 (SICR)€7.1bn€8.2bn3.68%€261M
Stage 3 (Credit Impaired)€1.59bn€1.82bn51.6%€820M
POCI Assets€0.31bn€0.38bn€38M
Total€70.8bn€69.2bn1.62%€1,175M

Stage 2 Triggers (Monitoring)
30+ DPD€1.2bn
Watchlist / EWS flagged€2.4bn
Forbearance€0.8bn
Backstop (>30 days O/D 12m+)€3.1bn
Sector Concentration (% RWA)
Residential Mortgages34.2%
SME14.8%
Commercial Real Estate12.2%
Corporate11.4%
Consumer6.8%
Sovereign / Public Sector8.4%

Geographic Split
Republic of Ireland72.4%
United Kingdom18.6%
Europe / Other9.0%
Market & Operational Risk
Interest Rate Risk (Banking Book)
EVE Sensitivity (ΔEQ +200bps)-€460M
NII Sensitivity (+200bps, 1yr)+€580M
Repricing gap (1yr bucket)+€18.2bn
Fixed rate portfolio (% loans)62%
Duration of Equity3.8 yrs

Operational Risk
Op Risk RWA€13.2bn
Op Risk Capital (SMA)€1.2bn
Conduct Provisions€142M
Cyber Risk RatingModerate

Climate Risk
Carbon-intensive loan exposure€8.4bn
TCFD alignmentPartial
Physical risk (mortgage book)Moderate
Full Regulatory Metric Summary — RAG Status
Capital
CET1 Ratio16.2%
T1 Ratio17.6%
Total Capital20.1%
Leverage Ratio7.4%
MREL (% TREA)35.2%
Liquidity
LCR204%
NSFR163%
LDR61.0%
Survival Horizon11+ months
Encumbrance16.2%
Profitability
ROTE25.0%
NIM2.73%
CIR44.2%
ROE22.8%
ROA1.51%
Credit Quality
NPE Ratio2.2%
NPE Coverage44%
CoR21bps
Stage 2 %10.0%
CRE NPE3.1%
Customer Analytics
Balance Sheet · Demographics · Product Depth · Engagement · Dec 2025 · 3.4M Customers
FILTER:
Active Customers
3.18M
+4.2% YoY
Avg Balance / Customer
€36,800
Deposits + Loans
Revenue / Customer
€1,324
NIM + fees p.a.
Digital Adoption
72%
Mobile active
Avg Products / Customer
2.4
Target: 3.0
Main Bank Share
40%
Personal current a/c
Customer Age Distribution & Avg Balance (€k)
18–25 (Digital Natives)424k · Avg bal €4.2k
26–35 (Early Career)612k · Avg bal €12.8k
36–45 (Peak Earner)578k · Avg bal €42.4k
46–55 (Wealth Accum.)524k · Avg bal €68.6k
56–65 (Pre-Retirement)486k · Avg bal €94.2k
65+ (Retirement)554k · Avg bal €76.4k
Product Holdings & Penetration Rates
Current Account100%
Savings / Deposit68%
Credit Card34%
Mortgage22%
Personal Loan / Car Finance18%
Business Account (SME)14%
Wealth / Investment (Goodbody / AIB life)8%
Insurance (AIB life)6%
Cross-sell opportunity (≤1 product)28% of base
3+ product customers (sticky)38% of base
Mobile App Engagement Depth
Daily Active (DAU)890k · 28%
Weekly Active1.84M · 58%
Monthly Active (MAU)2.30M · 72%
Login ≥3×/week1.12M · 35%
Top App Actions (monthly)
Balance / statement view94.2M
Payments (SEPA / Instant)48.6M
Savings / term deposit12.4M
Loan / mortgage enquiry8.2M
Abi AI assistant5.2M
Avg sessions / active user / mo41
Avg session duration2m 14s
App NPS+62
Competitor Leakage Analysis
AIB customers with competing product elsewhere
Savings with neobank (Revolut / N26)24%
Investment with competitor18%
Mortgage with BOI / competitor12%
Business a/c with Revolut Business11%
Insurance with third party42%
Net Customer Flows (12M)
New-to-bank+186k
Lapsed / churned-42k
Net acquisition+144k
Churn rate1.3%
Neobank dual-bankers31% of base
🌐 FDI-Employed Customer Segment
~18% of personal base · Premium segment · est. 572k customers
Avg annual salary€72,400
Avg deposit balance€28,400
Avg mortgage balance€248,000
Revenue per customer€2,840 (+114% vs avg)
FDI segment total deposits~€16.2bn
FDI segment total mortgages~€14.2bn
Wealth product penetration11% (opportunity)
FDI Sector Mix
Technology / Software44%
Pharma / MedTech22%
Financial Services18%
Professional Services10%
Other FDI6%
Balance Sheet Overlay by Segment
Personal SME Corporate Wealth C&IC / CapMkts
Deposits €117.2bn
Personal €60.9bn SME €25.8bn Corp €16.4bn Wealth €14.1bn
Gross Loans €72.3bn
Personal €41.9bn SME €17.4bn C&IC €6.3bn CapMkts €6.7bn
Revenue (NII + Fees) €4,504m
Retail €1,892m SME €1,171m CapMkts €811m C&IC €630m
NIM — Personal2.18%
NIM — SME3.42%
NIM — Corporate2.84%
Cost to serve — Personal avg€284 / yr
Profitability per Customer Segment — FY2025
SegmentCustomersAvg Deposits Avg LoansAvg Products Revenue/CustCost/Cust Profit/CustNIM Digital%Churn
Personal 18–351,036k€8,400€12,2001.8€620€312€3082.02%91%High
Personal 36–551,102k€52,400€84,6002.9€1,840€298€1,5422.28%74%Low
Personal 55+1,040k€84,200€28,4002.2€1,420€324€1,0961.84%48%Low
Wealth / Goodbody142k€186,000€124,0004.2€6,240€480€5,7602.44%62%Very Low
SME (<€1M)284k€48,200€62,4003.4€4,120€840€3,2803.42%67%Med
Corporate / FDI8,400€1.94M€2.84M5.8€84,200€12,400€71,8002.84%88%Med
Total / Wtd Avg3.18M€36,800€22,4002.4€1,324€342€9822.73%72%
Net Promoter Scores (2025)
Personal Banking+41
Home / Mortgage+66
Digital Channel+62
SME Aggregated+69
NI Transactional+55
Customer Growth
New-to-bank (12M)+186k
FTB mortgage customers~9,000
AIB life policyholders56,000
Goodbody clients~14,000
Churn rate1.3%
AUM & Wealth
Total AUM€18.3bn
Goodbody AUM€15.3bn
AIB life AUM€3.0bn
AUM YoY growth+9%
Wealth penetration8% (opportunity)
Digital Channels
App interactions/day3.14M
Online loan applications88%
SEPA Instant (2025)17.2M
Abi calls/day5,208
Abi journeys live66